AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): An examination of recent geopolitical developments shows that the core objective of U.S. foreign policy, from the Biden era to the Trump administration, has been to prevent China from replacing the United States as the world’s largest economic power. Within this framework, the war in Ukraine has evolved into a stage for confrontation among major powers seeking global dominance.
From the beginning of his presidency, Donald Trump placed the containment of China’s economic rise at the center of U.S. foreign policy, a goal that had already been pursued by Joe Biden. By rejecting Russia’s demands to halt NATO’s eastward expansion and refusing to commit formally to Ukraine’s non-membership in the alliance, the Biden administration paved the way for heightened tensions. Washington believed that if Russia attacked Ukraine, NATO could undermine Moscow through sweeping sanctions and cut off its financial resources for sustaining a prolonged war.
At the same time, the opposition of a significant segment of Ukrainian public opinion to joining the European Union and NATO was largely ignored. Confident of victory, Washington and Brussels pushed Russia toward confrontation, assuming that Moscow’s defeat would create conditions for restraining China’s economic growth and preventing its global dominance. For this reason, China, aware of Washington’s strategic objective, aligned itself politically and economically with Russia.
Trump appears to have concluded that the United States, even with the support of the European Union, has little chance of achieving a decisive victory in this conflict. From his perspective, the only viable path to containing China is to draw Russia closer to Washington, a state that is both one of the world’s two major nuclear powers and a key energy supplier to China. Accordingly, Trump seeks to align Moscow in a way that would enable it, if necessary, to halt oil and gas exports to Beijing.
Across the Atlantic, the European Union also viewed Russia’s defeat in Ukraine as an opportunity to expand its influence eastward in Europe and even into parts of post-Soviet Central Asia. With a population larger than that of the United States, further enlargement could have transformed the EU into a bloc capable of competing with the U.S. and China, and potentially India in the future.
From this perspective, Ukraine has become a battlefield in the rivalry of great powers for global supremacy. Trump believes that winning Moscow’s cooperation is possible only by allowing the annexation of parts of Ukraine whose populations oppose accession to the EU and NATO, enabling Russia to preserve its status as a superpower. In return, Washington seeks to place Russia under sufficient influence to use it as leverage against China.
In the energy sphere, Washington is also attempting to challenge Beijing’s energy security by controlling oil resources, limiting China’s access to certain suppliers such as Venezuela, and exerting influence over oil-producing states in West Asia. Within this framework, Iran has come under increasing U.S. pressure, accompanied by an expanded American military presence in its surrounding region.
So far, China has shown no plan for direct military involvement in Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian territory, and its support has largely been confined to assisting Russia’s defense industries and purchasing Russian oil and gas.
In parallel, Trump encountered resistance from the European Union in the early stages of talks aimed at ending the Ukraine war and ultimately sidelined Brussels from the negotiation process, removing a rival from the power equation.
Regarding Washington’s expansionist objectives, Trump appears intent on strengthening the military and economic position of the United States through the control or acquisition of strategic regions. Greenland, with its geopolitical location and potential mineral resources, tops the list. Discussions have even touched on countries such as Canada and Mexico, with analysts noting that annexing Mexico alone could increase the U.S. population by more than 130 million, bringing it closer to the demographic scale of the European Union.
On the military front, Trump announced on January 8 on the social media platform Truth Social that the U.S. defense budget would rise from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion by 2027. Analysts say the move signals Washington’s pursuit of absolute military superiority. The reduction of America’s role in UN-affiliated institutions and proposals to establish alternative structures under U.S. leadership are also assessed within this same framework.
In conclusion, observers argue that the only hope for restoring democracy to the global system lies in the formation of alliances independent of the United States and the creation of a new structure within the United Nations in which the veto power of major states is abolished and decisions are made by majority vote. Such a path, they say, could eventually lead to the end of traditional military pacts such as NATO.
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